By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ

PARIS - In past global slowdowns, the United States invariably led the way out, followed by Europe and the rest of the world. But for the first time, the catalyst is coming from China and the rest of Asia, where resurgent economies are helping the still-shaky West recover from the deepest recession since World War II.

Economists have long predicted that an increasingly powerful China would come to rival and eventually surpass the United States in economic influence. While the American economy is still more than three times the size of China’s, the nascent global recovery suggests that this long-anticipated change could arrive sooner than had been expected.

Such a shift would have significant ramifications for the United States and the rest of the West, even after the global economic recovery takes hold.

“The economic center of gravity has been shifting for some time, but this recession marks a turning point,” said Neal Soss, chief economist for Credit Suisse in New York. “It’s Asia that’s lifting the world, rather than the U.S., and that’s never happened before.”

China’s government- dominated, top-down economy is surging after Chinese banks doled out more than $1 trillion in loans in the first half of the year, in addition to a nearly $600 billion government stimulus program.

Though the benefits are manifest, some economists wonder whether China is laying the groundwork for sustainable growth or just increasing its export capacity despite more frugal spending habits on the part of Western consumers.

“The big question is what happens next,” said Kenneth S. Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard University. “If the consumer in the United States and Europe doesn’t come back, I’m not sure Asia has a Plan B.”

But robust demand among Chinese consumers and businesses is one reason oil prices have doubled to more than $70 a barrel since bottoming out early this year, and China is likely to keep buying American debt as Washington borrows heavily to finance its myriad stimulus and bailout plans.

The United States is also being shoved aside as the crucial customer for export-driven nations like Germany and Japan. China overtook the United States as Japan’s leading trading partner in the first half of 2009, while in Europe manufacturers are looking east instead of west.

In the near term, however, the United States should benefit from a resurgent Asia, as the American economy finally begins growing again, as expected in the second half of 2009.

“Vigorous rebounds overseas, particularly in East Asia, suggest that U.S. imports and exports will soon improve,” Mr. Soss said.

After the French and German economies shocked most economists this month by turning in positive performances for the second quarter, Deutsche Bank released a report titled, “Eurozone Q2 GDP: Made in China?”

For now, the answer seems to be yes. “It’s quite amazing, because usually Asia doesn’t play such a big role in European exports or output,” said Gilles Moec, senior European economist with Deutsche Bank in London.

“Asia is still relatively small in the world, but it reflects how the world is changing, and economic power does translate, of course, into political power,” said Simon Johnson, a former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund and now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “You can use it to win friends and influence people, as the Chinese are already doing in Africa and Latin America.”


China’s economy is rebounding, aided by $1.6 trillion in loans and stimulus money.


Nadim Audi contributed reporting from Paris.