By Kim Yon-se
Staff Reporter
Korea could realize its long-cherished dream of $20,000 in per-capita income in two to three years on the back of a strong won.

The prediction came on the assumption that one dollar would be valued at 1,000-1,050 won.

The Bank of Korea (BOK) has estimated that the nation’s per-capita gross national income (GNI) will climb to $14,100 this year and $16,900 next year.

Korea has seen its per-capita income stay slightly above the $10,000 mark over the past decade _ $11,432 in 1995, $10,841 in 2000 and $12,646 in 2003.

Should Korea enter the $20,000 era in per-capita income, its ranking among the 210 countries around the globe could rise by about 20 notches to 30th or higher, from 50th in 2003. The won is one of the strong currencies against the dollar.

According to the United Nations, countries with per-capita GNI above the $20,000 level include Singapore, Germany, France, Canada, Italy and Australia.

The LG Economic Research Institute has forecast the average won-dollar exchange rate next year will be 1,000 won, down 12.7 percent from this year.

Apart from the strong Korean currency, BOK deputy director general Ahn Yong-sung cited robust GDP growth, stabilized consumer prices and moderate population growth as the most important factors for realizing the rosy predictions.

``If GDP growth falls short of expectations (staying below 4 percent per annum) and consumer prices grow steeply (posting up to 4 percent), a $20,000 era will be hard to achieve,’’ he said.

After recording $254 in 1970 (126th in the world), $602 in 1975 (114th), Korea’s per-capita GNI began rising more quickly from the 1980s _ $1,645 in 1980 (85th), $2,309 in 1985 (72nd) and $6,147 in 1990 (64th).

But an economist at the Korea Institute of Finance discounted the scenario, saying that $20,000 in per-capita income on the back of a weak dollar would not be helpful in improving the livelihoods of the low-income bracket, with fewer chances to buy goods with the greenback abroad.

Bermuda, famous for being a tax haven, ranked first in per-capita GNI with $54,818, followed by Luxembourg with $51,848 and Norway with $49,152. The United States held 9th spot with $37,305 while Japan was on 12th with $34,396 in 2003, according to a UN report in November.

kys@koreatimes.co.kr

12-10-2004 15:39