A grim forecast has emerged suggesting that egg prices, which have already soared to record highs, could rise an additional 41% this year. This comes as the supply chain is expected to take time to recover amid a sharp increase in the culling of laying hens due to avian influenza.

On the 27th, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicted that egg prices would increase by at least 41% this year. Just last month, the agency had forecasted a 20% rise, but this latest projection more than doubles that estimate. This means consumers will have to endure even higher prices and supply shortages for some time before egg prices begin to drop.

In some regions, such as Southern California, the price of a dozen eggs has already surged past $10, reaching as high as $15. Consumers are now paying more than $1 per egg. Restaurants like Denny’s and Waffle House have started charging extra for egg-based dishes, while bakeries, which heavily rely on eggs, are raising bread prices. Alongside the price hikes, egg supply has sharply declined, prompting retailers like Trader Joe’s to limit purchases to one dozen eggs per customer.

According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released for January, egg prices jumped 15.2% from the previous month and are up 53% compared to a year ago. The U.S. Department of Labor noted that January’s egg price surge was the highest since June 2015, contributing to two-thirds of the increase in at-home food prices for the month. The USDA attributed much of the price hike to “the ongoing outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza, which have devastated poultry farms and disrupted egg supplies over the past two years.” Authorities report that since the avian flu outbreak began in the U.S. in 2022, approximately 166 million laying hens have been culled. Last month alone, about 19 million hens were culled, marking the worst month for egg farms.

When the virus is detected at a chicken farm, entire flocks are typically culled to prevent the disease from spreading. Large farms, which can house millions of chickens, mean that an outbreak at even a single major facility can severely disrupt the supply chain.

On the 26th, the federal government announced an emergency aid package of up to $1 billion to combat avian flu and support egg farmers. The plan includes easing regulations, such as California’s “minimum space requirements for laying hens,” to boost egg supply and allowing households to more easily raise chickens in their backyards. The USDA is also considering an unprecedented short-term measure of importing eggs from abroad to lower prices.

<Hwandong Cho>