Sunrise in the Strait of Malacca, where 735 cargo ships sat empty because of a decline in exports.

By KEITH BRADSHER


SINGAPORE - To go out in a small boat along Singapore’s coast now is to feel like a mouse tiptoeing through an endless herd of slumbering elephants.

One of the largest fleets of ships ever gathered idles here just outside one of the world’s busiest ports, marooned by the receding tide of global trade. There may be tentative signs of economic recovery in spots around the globe, but few here.

Hundreds of cargo ships - some up to 270,000 metric tons, with many weighing more than the entire 130-ship Spanish Armada - seem to perch on top of the water rather than in it, their red rudders and bulbous noses, submerged when the vessels are loaded, sticking several meters out of the water.

So many ships have congregated here - 735, according to AIS Live tracking service of Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay Research, a ship tracking service based in Gothenburg, Sweden - that shipping lines are becoming concerned about near misses and collisions in one of the world’s most congested waterways, the Strait of Malacca, which separates Malaysia and Singapore from Indonesia.

The root of the problem lies in an unusually steep slump in global trade, confirmed by trade statistics announced on May 12.

China said that its exports nose-dived 22.6 percent in April from a year earlier, while the Philippines said that its exports in March were down 30.9 percent from a year earlier. The United States recently announced that its exports had declined 2.4 percent in March.

“The March 2009 trade data reiterates the current challenges in our global economy,”said Ron Kirk, the United States trade representative.

More worrisome is that the current level of trade suggests a recovery is far off, many in the shipping business say.

“A lot of the orders for the retail season are being placed now, and compared to recent years, they are weak,”said Chris Woodward, the vice president for container services at Ryder System, the big logistics company.

Western consumers still adjusting to losses in value of their stocks and homes are in little mood to start spending again on nonessential imports, said Joshua Felman, the assistant director of the Asia and Pacific division of the International Monetary Fund.“For trade to pick up, demand has to pick up,”he said.“It’s very difficult to see that happening any time soon.”

The daily rate to charter a large bulk freighter suitable for carrying, say, iron ore, plummeted from close to $300,000 last summer to a low of $10,000 early this year, according to H. Clarkson & Company, a London ship brokerage.

The rate has rebounded to nearly $25,000 in the last several weeks, and some bulk carriers have left Singapore. But ship owners say this recovery may be short-lived because it mostly reflects a rush by Chinese steel makers to import iron ore before a possible price increase.

Container shipping is also showing faint signs of revival, but remains deeply depressed. And more empty tankers are showing up here.

The cost of shipping a 12-meter steel container full of merchandise from southern China to northern Europe tumbled from $1,400 plus fuel charges a year ago to as little as $150 early this year, before rebounding to around $300, which is still below the cost of providing the service, said Neil Dekker, a container industry forecaster at Drewry Shipping Consultants in London.

Eight small companies in the industry have gone bankrupt in the last year and at least one of the major carriers is likely to fail this year, he said.

Vessels have flocked to Singapore because it has few storms, excellent ship repair teams, cheap fuel from its own refinery and proximity to Asian ports that might eventually have cargo to ship.

The gathering of so many freighters“is extraordinary,”said Christopher Palsson, a senior consultant at Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay Research, a ship tracking service.“We have probably not witnessed anything like this since the early 1980s,”during the last big bust in the global shipping industry.

Ships are anchoring at other ports around the world, too. There were 150 vessels in and around the Straits of Gibraltar on May 11, and 300 around Rotterdam, the Netherlands, according to the AIS Live tracking service.

But Singapore, close to Asian markets, has attracted far more.

“It is a sign of the times,”said Martin Stopford, the managing director of Clarkson Research Service in London,“that Asia is the place you want to hang around this time in case things turn around.”