By STEVEN LEE MYERS


BAGHDAD - This is what victory in the war in Iraq was supposed to look like: Fifteen million Iraqis voting in free and fair (largely) elections, emerging from their polling stations with their purple-stained fingers in an atmosphere that was free (largely) of intimidation or violence.

When Iraq’s regional elections were held on January 31, that was indeed the scene. What’s more, when the results were announced, it became clear that parties promising security and national unity, led by Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki’s bloc, had fared better than exclusively sectarian ones that until recently seemed bent on sundering the country.

The elections again raised hopes that a stable, democratic Iraq was emerging from the calamity of six years of war, an outcome that could hasten the departure of the remaining 140,000 American troops, as President Obama suggested in his congratulatory calls to Iraqi leaders.

But there are other measures of victory in Iraq, and so at this, yet another hinge in Iraq’s tortured history, it seems a fair time to ask: Has the war enhanced American strategic interests in the troubled Middle East, as President Bush and the other champions of the war long argued would happen?

The answer is no, or at least not yet.

The overthrow of Saddam Hussein, whatever the underlying motivation, certainly removed a potential threat to American interests, but as the sixth anniversary of the war approaches, the Middle East remains as troubling and turbulent as ever. Whatever gains Iraq has brought have to be measured alongside the costs, the casualties and the consequences to America’s standing in the region.

“We are not necessarily weaker,”said Marina Ottaway, director of Middle Eastern affairs for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.“But,”she added,“after all these years and the money that we’ve spent, I’m not sure we’re coming out in a stronger strategic position.”

Indeed, Afghanistan has spiraled deeper into insurgency as Pakistan stumbles toward chaos. The democratizing example Iraq was to have set has yet to show itself in countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria.

And then there is Iran, which has emerged as the Muslim Middle East’s unrivaled power, punctuating its ambitions and capabilities with the launch on February 3 of a satellite into space.“The collapse of Iraq? the army, the government? created a huge gap in security in the region,”said Mustafa Alani, a security analyst at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai.“And Iran emerged, by default, as the power in the region.”

As a new president, Mr.Obama has a new chance to refocus American strategy. Iraq’s contribution to that, if it has any, would be to become stable enough that an overstretched American military can free up forces to counter the Taliban’s resurgence in Afghanistan. There, the Obama administration has pledged up to 30,000 additional troops, even as the president’s envoys redouble diplomatic efforts in the region.

“The Obama administration is sending signals it is willing to start a dialogue”among the region’s leaders, Ms.Ottaway said.“And with Iraq seemingly more stable, it is possible that there could be some strategic progress.”