Pakistan’s military is threatening to shoot American troops if they launch another raid into Pakistan’s territory. Whether the threat is real or meant solely for domestic consumption, there is a real danger of miscalculation that would be catastrophic for both countries.
President Bush’s decision to authorize Special Operations forces in Afghanistan to go after militants in Pakistan’s lawless border region was a desperation move. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, admitted earlier this month that America and its allies were “running out of time” to save Afghanistan.
We certainly share his alarm and his clear frustration that the Pakistanis are doing too little to defeat the extremists or stop their attacks into Afghanistan. But Mr. Bush and his aides should be just as alarmed about Pakistan’s unraveling - the recent horrific bombing at Islamabad’s Marriott Hotel is only the latest sign - and working a lot harder to come up with a policy that bolsters Pakistan’s fragile civilian government while enlisting its full support in the fight against extremists.
If an American raid captured or killed a top Qaeda or Taliban operative, the backlash might be worth it. But if there is any chance of permanently rooting out extremists from the tribal areas, that will have to be done by Pakistan’s military, backed up with sustained programs for economic and political development.
For that, Washington must finally persuade Pakistan’s leaders that this is not just America’s fight but essential to their own security and survival as a democracy. And Pakistan’s leaders must persuade their citizens.
We fear that a rising number of civilian casualties, on both sides of the border, is driving more people into the hands of the repressive Taliban and other extremist groups. These attacks are also making Pakistan’s new president, Asif Ali Zardari, look weak and irrelevant.
He is an undeniably flawed leader, with little political experience and a history tainted by charges of corruption. But he deserves a chance, and American support, to fulfill his promises to bolster democracy, clean up Pakistan’s intelligence services and work with the United States to defeat terrorism.
Mr. Zardari made a start, inviting President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan to his inauguration. In a speech to Parliament on September 20 - hours before the bombing - he said his government would not allow terrorists to launch attacks on any neighbor from Pakistani soil, nor would it tolerate further American military incursions. Admiral Mullen made a recent trip to Pakistan to repair relations and Pentagon officials say they are reviewing the overall strategy. Any revised plan must do a lot more to avoid civilian casualties and support, rather than undermine, Pakistan’s civilian leaders. Congress can do its part by approving a $7.5 billion aid package, intended to strengthen Pakistan’s democratic institutions and its counterinsurgency capabilities.
The Pentagon also needs to quickly come up with a better strategy in Afghanistan. Commanders warn that Mr. Bush’s promise to send 4,500 additional troops falls far short. We fear that Admiral Mullen is right: there isn’t much time left - on either side of the border.