President Nicolas Sarkozy of France did not go to Moscow earlier this month with a strong diplomatic hand, and the Russians knew it. President Dmitri Medvedev of Russia agreed to withdraw his troops from most of Georgia by mid- October, but he insists on keeping nearly 8,000 in the two breakaway enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Those, he says, are now independent.
Russia cannot be allowed to redraw Georgia’s (or anyone else’s) borders by force. Until the Europeans stand together - and with the United States - against Moscow’s bullying, Russia’s leaders will feel little pressure to change their behavior.
The European Union is divided between the desperately frightened and the myopically complacent. In the first group are former Soviet satellites, like Poland and the Baltic states, which have earned their fear, joined by Britain.
In the second are Germany, Italy and France (Mr. Sarkozy is the exception), which have put trade and a thirst for Russian energy ahead of everything else. If the second group believes that they are somehow immune from Moscow’s bullying, then they should take another look at their dependence on Russian energy supplies.
Georgia’s pro-Western president, Mikheil Saakashvili, eagerly fell into Moscow’s trap when he tried to retake South Ossetia by force and gave Moscow the pretext to invade Georgia. That blunder makes it even less likely that Georgia will regain full control over the two enclaves, but their ultimate status must be decided by international mediation, not Russian occupation.
Flush with oil and gas wealth, Moscow has leverage, but not as much as it believes. European energy importers would have more leverage if they started pooling their buying power and stockpiling strategic reserves. Few Russians - and certainly not Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s many business class partners - are eager to go back to the bad-old days of isolation.
The Bush administration has correctly recognized that unilateral action is unlikely to make a difference. The message must come from both sides of the Atlantic that there can be no business as usual until Russia returns to playing by the rules.
Europe has deferred talks with Russia on a new economic and security pact until it completes its promised troop withdrawal. That is not enough. The European Union should not resume talks until Russia agrees to admit European monitors to both South Ossetia and Abkhazia and to international mediation on the enclaves’ status.
More complacency will only feed Russia’s ambitions. That can’t be good for Europe or anyone else.