By Choi Kyong-ae
Staff Reporter




A state research institute Thursday forecast the national economy will grow an average of 4.6 percent annually to post a $45,000 per-capita GDP by 2020, making Korea the world’s 10th largest economy in terms of GDP.
In a seminar at the Grand Inter-continental Hotel in Samsong-dong, southern Seoul, Thursday, the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Trade (KIET) gave this rosy economic outlook and others.

Over the next 15 years, South Korea’s trade volume will become the world’s seventh largest at $1.4 trillion, with manufacturing products accounting for 4 percent of the global market, the world’s fourth largest, the KIET projected. A total 3.6 million jobs will be created.

``The country’s growth engine will be weakened due to a decrease in the working-age population, working hours and facility investment. So the annual GDP growth rate will stand at 4.6 percent from 2005 to 2020,’’ Lim Dong-soon, KIET research fellow, said.

But he did not exclude the possibility that the per-capita GDP might rise to $50,000 on an unexpectedly high annual growth rate of 5.1 percent.

Automobile manufacturers and shipbuilders, the main drivers of the economic growth, and companies which provide cultural content, software and games, will underpin the economy for the coming 15 years, he said.

In 2020, semiconductor, automobile and general machinery exports will account for 75 percent of the total shipments, up 5 percent from 2004.

But fortunately the country is expected to be less dependent upon exports.

By sector, shipbuilding will remain at the world’s top spot, electronics and semiconductor rank third, steel ranks third and automobiles rank seventh in the world.

For a sustainable growth, the KIET has selected 41 business categories to get the boost. They include next-generation memory and non-memory chips, new medicines, home network systems, digital TVs, service robots and cultural content.

The KIET pointed out the aging population, lack of natural resources and an obsession with intellectual property rights as three major factors which run against the national growth potential.

The seminar was held to celebrate the institute’s 30th anniversary.

godamon@koreatimes.co.kr