By Park Song-wu
Staff Reporter



The statistics are based on telephone interviews with 1,038 people over the age of 20 across the country. The survey results have a 95 percent confidence interval with a margin of error of +/- 3.04 %
Even though his recent political achievements are limited to his successful management of the government during the impeachment trial of President Roh Moo-hyun in 2004, Goh Kun, former prime minister, recorded once again the highest approval rating among presidential hopefuls.

Goh placed first in a survey conducted on October 27 and 28 by The Korea Times and its sister paper the Hankook Ilbo with an approval rating of 30.2 percent, followed by Seoul Mayor Lee Myung-bak with 24.0 percent; Park Geun-hye, chairwoman of the main opposition Grand National Party (GNP), with 19.3 percent; and Chung Dong-young, unification minister and presidential hopeful of the ruling Uri Party, with 8.9 percent.

Prime Minister Lee Hae-chan and Minister of Health and Welfare Kim Geun-tae _ both members of the Uri Party _ have gained 3.9 percent and 3.6 percent approval ratings respectively.

Governor Sohn Hak-kyu of Kyonggi Province gained a 0.8 percent approval rating, indicating that his chance of making the short list for the 2007 presidential election is not high.



On Aug. 9, a survey of 1,000 adults by The Korea Times and the Hankook Ilbo also placed Goh first with 29.6 percent, followed by Park with 17 percent and Lee Myung-bak with 16.9 percent.
Although Goh has not shown remarkable performances in politics, his popularity has always been top in recent polls. Perhaps it is thanks to his image of responsibility and excellent management skills. In addition, his life as a high-ranking public official, begun in March 1997, has not been tarnished by any notable mistakes.

But it is not sure whether Goh could maintain his image if he affiliates himself to a particular political party or shows his ideological colors.

Time will tell whether Goh will survive as a strong candidate until the last moment, given that two years are left before the presidential election.

Goh’s supporters are workers in the fields of agriculture, forestry and fishery (41.2 percent), people who finished middle school education and below (36.8 percent) and residents in the Cholla provinces (48.7 percent).

It is expected that the minor opposition Democratic Party or the tentatively named People’s Central Party, which has its political power base in the Chungchong provinces, will try to persuade Goh to join them in the presidential election.

Based on the survey, Goh, standing as a candidate of a yet unformed political party, would win easily in all possible three-way contests. The exception was found when Goh was pitted against Chung and Lee Myung-bak. In that case, the race tightened up with Goh expected to win 38.5 percent of votes, narrowly defeating Lee (37.3 percent) and Chung (18.7 percent).

In another highly possible scenario, with Goh competing against Chung and Park, Goh was predicted to win 41.7 percent of votes, defeating Park (35.8 percent) and Chung (18.2 percent).

The surging popularity of Lee Myung-bak, another strong presidential aspirant and former CEO of Hyundai Engineering and Construction, has largely been attributed to his efforts in restoring the Chonggyechon stream in Seoul on Oct. 1.

The stream, which had been covered under a dilapidated highway for about half a century, has attracted millions of visitors since the completion of the three-year restoration work.

But the impact of the event will dwindle as time goes by. Given that the presidential election is still two years away, Lee may need another major achievement to win solid support.

Lee’s supporters are mostly based in Seoul (36.1 percent) and in high-income brackets. About 32 percent of his backers have monthly incomes of between 3 million won ($2,500) and 4 million won, while 29.8 percent earn more than 4 million won.

Park Geun-hye, who played a major role in winning four seats for the GNP in the recent by-elections, is still considered a powerful candidate for the presidential election.

But nobody can say for sure that she will become the standard-bearer of the conservative party, which has many factions with their own favorites such as Lee Myung-bak and Sohn Hak-kyu.

In addition, Park has been frequently attacked by ruling party politicians, mostly liberal or left-center, who say that she is basking in the legacy of her late father Park Chung-hee. The former president, often called a dictator, successfully developed the country’s economy from the rubble of the 1950-53 Korean War.

Park draws supports from Taegu and North Kyongsang Province (27 percent), Pusan and South Kyongsang Province (33.3 percent) and low-income people who earn less then 1 million won (26.9 percent) and somewhere between 1 and 2 million won (25.5 percent) per month.

Chung Dong-young is considered the most likely presidential candidate of the ruling party, but he needs to pull off a big political achievement such as arranging an inter-Korean summit between President Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il over the next two years to make a strong impression on voters.

But, after the defeat in the by-elections, the Uri Party’s shaky leadership needs his help now.

It means that Chung has to give up the lucrative Cabinet post, which helped him transform his image from a TV anchorman to a pivotal politician. The unification minister concurrently serves as the standing committee chairman of the presidential National Security Council.

im@koreatimes.co.kr