By Reuben Staines
Staff Reporter

The devastating explosion at a North Korean train station, nine hours after its reclusive leader Kim Jong-il reportedly passed through on his way home from a secretive visit to China, was most likely a coincidence, experts in South Korea said on Friday.

However, they did not rule out the possibility that the blast was an assassination attempt by forces opposed to Kim.

``This incident has a lot of puzzles,’’ said Ryoo Kihl-jae, professor at Kyungnam University’s graduate school of North Korean studies.

With conflicting and vague reports emerging about Thursday’s incident at Ryongchon, a town 50 kilometers from the Chinese border, speculation mounted over whether it was an accident or terrorist attack.

Media accounts of the cause of the disaster varied from a collision between two cargo trains carrying fuel to an LPG explosion on a train single that triggered further blasts. Estimates on the death toll were equally uncertain, with Yonhap News Agency suggesting as many as 3,000 may have been killed.

North Korea’s media did not report the incident and it cut international phone lines to prevent news leaking across its borders, according to Yonhap.

Ryoo said his first impression was that the explosion was an attack by an anti-Kim Jong-il group. But as further details were reported, he concluded that there was no evidence to support terrorist involvement. ``It’s just a possibility and we have no hard evidence.’’

Ryoo said Kim and the North Korean Workers’ Party have control of all military organizations, but it was possible there were dissident groups operating on a local level.

Government officials in Seoul said the explosion appeared to be an accident and not linked to the reported trip through the station by Kim as he returned from summit talks with Chinese President Hu Jintao.

Unification Minister Jeong Se-hyun denied the allegation that the accident might be an attempt to assassinate Kim. ``There is little such possibility, given the timing and other circumstances,’’ he said in a press briefing.

Other officials dismissed speculation of an assassination attempt, saying the dilapidated and outdated condition of the North’s railways was a more likely cause.

Kim Yeon-chul, senior researcher at Korea University’s Asiatic Center, believed the government’s assumption was reasonable, but he did not rule out other scenarios.

``It may be an accident, but behind this various kinds of scenarios are possible including terrorism by anti-Kim Jong-il forces outside or inside of North Korea.’’

He believed North Korea will continue to prevent details being released until it has established the cause of the blast.

Kim also backed the government’s offer of humanitarian aid to help the North recover from the explosion.

rjs@koreatimes.co.kr