By Kim Jae-kyoung
Staff Reporter

The central bank and other private economic think tanks are moving to raise their forecasts for the current account surplus and consumer inflation rate.

Also, many of them are set to revise their economic growth outlook upward in the coming months.

The moves came as a mixture of many economic variables, such as soaring oil prices and better-than-expected export growth, has been changing the economic environment.

A consensus view is that the current account surplus would be widened up to $10 billion this year and inflation may shoot up to the 4 percent range. The growth rate is expected to be around the 5.5 percent range as has been predicted by the International Monetary Fund.

The Bank of Korea (BOK) said on Monday that it plans to unveil a revised economic outlook for the current account and inflation in the middle of next month at the earliest following a meeting of its policy-setting Monetary Policy Committee slated for April 10.

Last December, the BOK predicted the current account surplus would reach $6 billion this year, while consumer price inflation would stand at 2.9 percent. It forecast economic growth to reach 5.2 percent at that time.

But the current account surplus topped $5 billion in the first two months of the year, and there exists growing inflationary pressure on consumer prices due to rising raw materials prices.

``It is inevitable to change forecasts for the inflation rate and current account balance due to soaring raw materials prices,’’ BOK director general Lee Ju-yeol said

The central bank said that if exports continue to be brisk down the road, the current account surplus may reach $10 billion this year.

In particular, given soaring prices of raw materials and crude oil, the central bank revised upward its ``internal’’ inflation forecast for this year to 3.2 percent early last month.

Other private economic think tanks are likely to follow suit, as their earlier predictions are expected to be wide of the mark.

The state-run Korea Development Institute (KDI) is set to put forward its revised economic predictions during April due to solid export growth.

``The KDI had predicted the economy to grow 5.3 percent this year,’’ a KDI senior economist said. ``But we can’t rule out the possibility of revising the growth forecast upward,’’ he said.

The KDI plans to raise its forecast for the current account surplus to $8 billion from the previous $7.3 billion. It also plans to revise its inflation outlook currently set at 2.8 percent upward in light of surging oil prices.

The Korea Institute of Finance will also revise its forecasts for inflation and current account surplus upward next month. Its predictions for inflation and the current account surplus are currently set at 2.7 percent and $6.5 billion, respectively.

The Samsung Economic Research Institute also said it would make public its revised forecast for economic indicators in May after the general elections scheduled for April 15.

kjk@koreatimes.co.kr