SEOUL?resident Kim Dae-jung seems to be engaged in another diplomatic initiative?ducating the new U.S. administration about North Korea.

``The Bush administration, the Republican government that has come to power after eight years of Democratic rule, might employ the hard-line approach used by the last Republican administration and scare Pyongyang back into its old xenophobic cocoon,’’ a senior government official said, adding that ``President Kim’s latest activities can be viewed in this context.’’
Telltale signs abound.

In the Jan. 22 Cabinet meeting, President Kim stressed that ROK-U.S. ties ``can’t be severed at any cost.’’

However, he voiced a veiled concern about a shift in U.S. policy toward the North under the new administration, saying, ``Despite outrageous speculation following the inauguration of the Bush administration, I don’t expect any major change in the ROK-U.S. policy toward Pyongyang.’’

The President gave emphasis to his remarks by adding, ``The two countries need an exchange of opinions in terms of how to implement it. ‘’

During a 20-minute telephone conversation with President Bush on Jan. 25, President Kim again stressed that the close coordination with the previous Bill Clinton administration and the three-way cooperation among Seoul, Tokyo and Washington have played a key role in ``major’’ progress in South- North rapprochement.

The President, on other occasions, pointed out the obviously close ROK- U.S. ties and, according to government officials and experts, there is adequate reason for that.

``The last time that the Republicans were in power was eight years ago,’’ the government official said. ``But the intervening eight years have seen more change than the previous 20 years. The President needs to inform the Bush administration of the changes to help it readjust itself to a new set of parameters.’’

The fear that the Republican government might turn back the South-North clock preceded the inauguration of President George W. Bush.

Experts pointed out that the Bush administration might take a hard-line stance toward Pyongyang, if the traditional Republican approach serves as any indication. For instance, new Secretary of State Colin Powell, in his Senate confirmation hearing, dubbed Kim Jong-il as a ``dictator,’’ harbingering that North Korea policy will be drawn up and implemented on a more reciprocal basis.

Some government officials said that Powell showed the old Republican mentality that doesn’t conform to the current status of the South-North relationship.

``I didn’t think that any senior cabinet member would say such a thing,’’ one official said. ``If it represented the new U.S. government’s mentality in general, it could scare Pyongyang back into its cave.’’

In this way, President Kim will likely see himself more in the role of mediator, on one hand enticing the North to open up and, on the other hand, bringing its close allies _ U.S. and Japan _ closer to his engagement policy, a government official said.
He said that despite Pyongyang’s hint of more openness, indicated by Kim Jong-il’s visit to China, the North can’t achieve the market size and flexibility that the communist giant has taken advantage of to become what it is today.

``The U.S. holds one of the two keys,’’ he said. ``If the U.S. lifts restrictions on Pyongyang, the North would be able to borrow from the world’s lending organizations and receive reparations from Japan for its colonial occupation in order to fund its reconstruction.’’

He said that it was a matter of course for Pyongyang to show it is worth the benefit of a shift in the U.S. stance, becoming more forthcoming to address the U.S. concern on its weapons of mass destruction.

``President Kim has to juggle these multiple priorities,’’ he said.

As for the outlook, Dong Yong-seung, senior researcher for North Korea affairs at the Samsung Economic Research Institute, ruled out the possibility that Seoul and Washington would fail to come up with a joint approach in dealing with the Stalinist country.

Dong, a close watcher of Pyongyang for more than 10 years, said that the new U.S. administration fully respects President Kim for his role in greater detente on the Korean peninsula, while President Kim stressed the need for a continued U.S. presence, even in a unified Korea.

He pointed out that a potential factor in the North Korea equation might lie in the Pyongyang-Beijing relationship.

``The U.S. seems to be pushing the North as a villain to get its national missile defense (NMD) off the ground, but the real motive lies in the rising power of China,’’ he said. ``We have to wait and see how the two allies will act, and the outcome will have a bearing on the U.S. policy toward Pyongyang.’’

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