▶ Uncertainty Surrounding U.S. Trade Talks Peaks
▶ Forecasts Suggest Potential Surge Past 1,600 Won

With the Korea-U.S. trade negotiations dragging on, the dollar-won exchange rate is projected to rise as high as 1,500 or 1,600 won. 3 sources On September 26, 2025, the KOSPI, KOSDAQ, and dollar exchange rate are displayed on the status board at Hana Bank’s dealing room. [Yonhap]
The dollar-won exchange rate has surged past the psychological barrier of 1,400 won, reaching a two-month high and creating mixed impacts within the Korean-American community. Analysts attribute the rising uncertainty in the foreign exchange market to concerns over South Korea’s $350 billion trade negotiations with the U.S. According to the foreign exchange market on September 28, 2025, the won-dollar exchange rate closed at 1,412.40 won during the week’s trading session (9 a.m. to 3:30 p.m.).
On September 25, the rate breached 1,400 won for the first time since August 1 (1,401.4 won). Despite the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting interest rates for the first time in nine months, signaling a resumption of rate cuts and a weakening dollar globally, the Korean won continues to struggle against a persistent downtrend. The South Korean government announced that exchange rate negotiations with the Trump administration have concluded, with results to be disclosed this week. However, experts warn that regardless of the outcome, volatility in the won-dollar exchange rate is likely to increase in the near term.
On September 24, South Korea’s Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol met with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at the South Korean Permanent Mission to the UN in New York to discuss a $350 billion U.S. investment package and currency swap arrangements. The won-dollar exchange rate soared to 1,486.7 won by the end of last year, driven by the U.S. presidential election in November, South Korea’s martial law declaration in December, and subsequent impeachment turmoil.
This year, the rate spiked to 1,487.6 won in April amid ongoing tariff threats from President Trump. Although temporary stability was achieved through tariff exemptions and trade talks, the rate continues to fluctuate unstably around the 1,400-won mark. Foreign exchange experts note that South Korea, with the world’s second-highest trade dependency, will likely face upward pressure on the won-dollar exchange rate regardless of the negotiation outcomes. Some pessimists even predict that, depending on how much the South Korean government concedes to U.S. demands, the exchange rate could approach 1,600 won in 2026. The exchange rate uncertainty is directly impacting Korean-American businesses and expatriates.
A Korean expatriate in Cerritos lamented, “With my salary paid in won, I’m losing hundreds of thousands of won monthly due to exchange rate losses. The soaring exchange rate combined with high inflation is overwhelming, and I’m seriously considering an early return to Korea.” International students are also facing challenges. The rising exchange rate has reduced the value of living expenses sent from South Korea, forcing students to cut back on spending. Parents sending money are grappling with an increasing financial burden.
One Korean parent said, “The cost of supporting my child’s studies and living expenses abroad is growing, and if the exchange rate stays this high, I may have to reduce the amount I send.” The surge in the exchange rate has also led to a sharp decline in Korean tourists visiting Los Angeles this year. Conversely, Korean-American travelers visiting South Korea are benefiting from the strong dollar, which enhances their purchasing power. A travel agency representative noted, “The rising exchange rate has boosted the purchasing power of Korean-American tourists, creating a positive impact for our industry.”
However, one Korean-American resident remarked, “The one-sided surge in the won-dollar exchange rate is not necessarily a positive factor for our community. I hope both governments can reach a bold agreement to stabilize the exchange rate at an appropriate level.”
Reporter: Park Hong-yong
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