With just 13 days remaining until the November 5th general election, which coincides with the U.S. presidential election, predictions from political experts and sites such as The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) suggest that all five Korean-American candidates running for Congress are likely to win. This includes four incumbent members and California State Senator Dave Min, who is making his first run for the U.S. House of Representatives. The 2024 election is expected to be a pivotal moment for the Korean-American political community.

According to predictions from The Hill and DDHQ on October 21st, candidates Michelle Park Steel, Young Kim, Dave Min, Marilyn Strickland, and Andy Kim are all showing strong chances of winning, with each candidate’s chances of victory outpacing their opponents.

In California's 40th district, incumbent Young Kim (Republican) holds an 88% chance of winning, compared to her Democratic opponent Joseph Kerr, who has just a 12% chance, according to DDHQ.

Many experts agree that Kim's district remains a Republican stronghold, making her re-election highly likely.

In California's 45th district, incumbent Michelle Park Steel (Republican) is also favored to win, with DDHQ giving her a 55% chance of victory compared to 45% for her Democratic opponent, Derek Tran. Although the district has slightly more registered Democratic voters (37% Democrat to 33% Republican), Steel’s solid support base and lack of major controversies have helped her maintain the lead.

DDHQ’s analysis of California's 47th district shows that Democratic candidate Dave Min holds a 60% chance of winning, while his Republican opponent, Scott Baugh, is trailing with 40%. This district is considered highly competitive, with both Democratic and Republican voter registration levels almost evenly split at around 35%. However, Min, a law professor and current California State Senator, has an edge due to his legislative track record and strong fundraising in the third quarter.

In Washington State's 10th district, Korean-American incumbent Marilyn Strickland (Democrat) is virtually assured of re-election, with a 99% chance of victory compared to just 1% for her Republican challenger, Don Hewett. Strickland’s seat is in a Democratic stronghold, and her opponent has even halted his fundraising efforts.

In the U.S. Senate race in New Jersey, incumbent Andy Kim (Democrat), who is aiming to become the first Korean-American U.S. Senator, also looks poised for victory. DDHQ predicts a 93% chance of success for Kim, compared to 7% for his Republican opponent, Curtis Bashaw. New Jersey is a heavily Democratic state, and many experts had already predicted that the Democratic primary in June would be the more decisive contest, with the general election seen as a formality.

Although candidates Michelle Park Steel and Dave Min in California's 45th and 47th districts still face competitive races, they are calling for continued support and voter participation from the Korean-American community to secure their wins.



<Hyungseok Han>