Not everyone graduates from college,
and it may be a smart career move.

By JACQUES STEINBERG

WHAT’S THE KEY to success? Short of becoming a reality TV star, the answer is rote and, some would argue, rather unconscious: Earn a college degree.

The idea that four years of higher education will translate into a better job, higher earnings and a happier life has been pounded into the heads of schoolchildren, parents and educators around the world. But there’s an underside to that conventional wisdom.

Perhaps no more than half of those who began a four-year bachelor’s degree program in the fall of 2006 in the United States will get that degree within six years, according to the latest projections from the Department of Education.

For college students who ranked among the bottom quarter of their high school classes, the numbers are even more stark: 80 percent will probably never get a bachelor’s degree or even a two-year associate’s degree.

That can be a lot of tuition to pay, without a degree to show for it.

A small but influential group of economists and educators is pushing another pathway: for some students, no college at all. It’s time, they say, to develop credible alternatives for students unlikely to be successful pursuing a higher degree, or who may not be ready to do so.

Among those calling for such alternatives are the economists Richard K. Vedder of Ohio University and Robert I. Lerman of American University and James E. Rosenbaum, an education professor at Northwestern Universty in Illinois. They would steer some students toward intensive, short-term vocational and career training, through expanded high school programs and corporate apprenticeships.

While no country has a perfect model for such programs, Professor Lerman pointed to a study of a German effort done last summer by an intern from that country. She found that of those who passed the Abitur, the exam that allows some Germans to attend college for almost no tuition, 40 percent chose to go into apprenticeships in trades, accounting, sales management and computers.

“Some of the people coming out of those apprenticeships are in more demand than college graduates,” he said, “because they’ve actually managed things in the workplace.”

Much of the training for certain positions, such as nurses’ aides, are feasible outside the college setting, Professor Vedder said. “It is true that we need more nanosurgeons than we did 10 to 15 years ago,” said Professor Vedder, founder of the Center for College Affordability and Productivity, a research nonprofit in Washington. “But the numbers are still relatively small compared to the numbers of nurses’ aides we’re going to need. We will need hundreds of thousands of them over the next decade.”

Of the 30 jobs projected to grow at the fastest rate over the next decade in the United States, only 7 typically require a bachelor’s degree, according to the government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Among the top 10 growing job categories, two require college degrees: accounting (a bachelor’s) and postsecondary teaching (a doctorate). But this growth is expected to be dwarfed by the need for registered nurses, home health aides, customer service representatives and store clerks. None of those jobs require a bachelor’s degree.

Professor Vedder likes to ask why 15 percent of mail carriers have bachelor’s degrees, according to a 1999 federal study. “Some of them could have bought a house for what they spent on their education,” he said.

Professor Lerman, the economist at American University in Washington, D.C., said some high school graduates would be better served by being taught how to behave and communicate in the workplace.

Such skills are ranked among the most desired - even ahead of educational attainment - in many surveys of employers. In one 2008 survey of more than 2,000 businesses in Washington State, employers said entrylevel workers appeared to be most deficient in being able to “solve problems and make decisions,” “resolve conflict and negotiate,” “cooperate with others” and “listen actively.”

Yet despite the need, vocational programs, which might teach such skills, have been one casualty in the push for national education standards, which focuses on preparing students for college.

While some educators propose a radical renovation of the community college system to teach work readiness, Professor Lerman advocates a significant national investment by government and employers in on-thejob apprenticeship training. He spoke with admiration, for example, about a program in the CVS pharmacy chain in which aspiring pharmacists’ assistants work as apprentices in hundreds of stores, with many going on to study to become full-fledged pharmacists themselves.

“The health field is an obvious case where the manpower situation is less than ideal,” he said. “I would try to work with some of the major employers to develop these kinds of programs to yield mastery in jobs that do demand high expertise.”

Still, by urging that some students be directed away from four-year colleges, academics like Professor Lerman could be accused of lowering expectations for some students. Some critics go further, suggesting that the approach amounts to educational redlining, since many of the students who drop out of college are black or non-white Hispanics.

Peggy Williams, a counselor at a high school in suburban New York City with a student body that is mostly black or Hispanic, understands the argument for erring on the side of pushing more students toward college.

“If we’re telling kids, ‘You can’t cut the mustard, you shouldn’t go to college or university,’ then we’re shortchanging them from experiencing an environment in which they might grow,” she said.

Morton Schapiro, an economist who is the president of Northwestern University, warned against overlooking the intangible benefits of a college experience for those who might not apply what they learned directly to their chosen work.

“It’s not just about the economic return,” he said. “Some college, whether you complete it or not, contributes to aesthetic appreciation, better health and better voting behavior.”

Even those who experience a few years of college earn more money, on average, with less risk of unemployment, than those who merely graduate from high school, said Mr. Schapiro.

“You get some return even if you don’t get the sheepskin,” he added.


A growing number of educators and economists say career alternatives should be developed for students who are unlikely to succeed in obtaining a college degree. / CHRISTOPHER FURLONG/GETTY IMAGES

Some job skills are valued more highly than advanced education. / CHRISTOPHER FURLONG/GETTY IMAGES