By ROBERT F. WORTH DUBAI, United Arab Emirates


SOFIA , A 34 -YE A R- OLD Frenchwoman, moved here a year ago to take a job in advertising, so confident about Dubai’s fastgrowing economy that she bought an apartment for almost $300,000 with a 15-year mortgage.

Now, like many of the foreign workers who make up 90 percent of the population here, she has been laid off and faces the prospect of being forced to leave this Persian Gulf city - or worse.

“I’m really scared of what could happen, because I bought property here,”said Sofia, who asked that her last name be withheld because she is still hunting for a new job.“If I can’t pay it off, I was told I could end up in debtors’prison.”

With Dubai’s economy in free fall, newspapers have reported that more than 3,000 cars sit abandoned in the parking lot at the Dubai Airport, left by fleeing, debt-ridden foreigners (who could in fact be imprisoned if they failed to pay their bills). Some are said to have maxed-out credit cards inside and notes of apology taped to the windshield.

The government says the real number is much lower. But the stories contain at least a grain of truth: jobless people here lose their work visas and then must leave the country within a month. That in turn reduces spending, creates housing vacancies and lowers real estate prices, in a downward spiral that has left parts of Dubai - once hailed as the economic superpower of the Middle East - looking like a ghost town.

No one knows how bad things have become, though it is clear that tens of thousands have left, real estate prices have crashed and scores of Dubai’s major construction projects have been suspended or canceled.

Meanwhile, a new draft media law would make it a crime to damage the country’s reputation or economy, punishable by fines of up to 1 million dirhams (about $272,000). Some say it is already having a chilling effect on reporting about the crisis.

Last month, local newspapers reported that Dubai was canceling 1,500 work visas every day, citing unnamed government officials.

“At the moment there is a readiness to believe the worst,”said Simon Williams, HSBC bank’s chief economist in Dubai.“And the limits on data make it difficult to counter the rumors.”

Some things are clear: real estate prices, which rose dramatically during Dubai’s six-year boom, have dropped 30 percent or more over the past two or three months in some parts of the city. Recently, Moody’s Investor’s Service announced that it might downgrade its ratings on six of Dubai’s most prominent state-owned companies, citing a deterioration in the economic outlook. So many used luxury cars are for sale, they are sometimes sold for 40 percent less than the asking price two months ago, car dealers say.

Some analysts say the crisis is likely to have long-lasting effects on the seven-member emirates federation, where Dubai has long played rebellious younger brother to oil-rich and more conservative Abu Dhabi. Dubai officials have made clear that they would be open to a bailout, but so far Abu Dhabi has offered assistance only to its own banks.

“Why is Abu Dhabi allowing its neighbor to have its international reputation trashed, when it could bail out Dubai’s banks and restore confidence?”said Christopher M.Davidson, who predicted the current crisis in“Dubai: The Vulnerability of Success,”a book published last year.“Perhaps the plan is to centralize the U.A.E.”nder Abu Dhabi’s control, he mused, in a move that would sharply curtail Dubai’s independence .

Dubai had seemed at first to be a refuge, relatively insulated from the panic that began hitting the rest of the world last autumn.

But Dubai, unlike Abu Dhabi or nearby Qatar and Saudi Arabia, does not have its own oil, and had built its reputation on real estate, finance and tourism. Now, many expatriates here talk about Dubai as though it were a con game all along. Lurid rumors spread quickly: the Palm Jumeira, an artificial island that is one of this city’s trademark developments, is said to be sinking, and when you turn the faucets in the hotels built atop it, only cockroaches come out.

“Is it going to get better? They tell you that, but I don’t know what to believe anymore,”said Sofia, who still hopes to find a job before her time runs out.“People are really panicking quickly.”

UNCERTAINTY SPREADS Prospective bidders examined cars, many abandoned by departed migrants, at an auction in Dubai. Top, policemen cast shadows as they stood guard during a demonstration by workers in New Delhi, India.